Wyoming @New Mexico State

The second game of week zero in 2018 NCAA Football is a matchup in Las Cruces, New Mexico between the Wyoming Cowboys and the New Mexico State Aggies.  These two teams have only met once before with Wyoming dominating 47-0 but it was so long ago that it has no bearing on tonights game.  The current line is Wyoming -4 after opening at -5.5.  My algorithim agrees with the bettors that have pushed this line down by calling for a 12-pt NMSU win! New Mexico St is coming off of its first bowl in 60 years after a 7-6 season capped with beating Utah State in OT of the Arizona Bowl!  This team is trending up in all statistical categories, scoring higher in all 6 years of Head Coach Doug Martin’s years, culminating in last year’s 29.3 points per game.  Not only have they improved offensively but defensively have improved to allowing 29.7 ppg, their first time holding opponents under 30 for Coach Martin and also returns 9 starters.  On the other side of the coin, the Cowboys finished 8-5 and played in their second straight bowl game.  Head Coach Craig Bohl has done a good job with Wyoming but even with first round pick Josh Allen the offense only scored 23.5 ppg.  In his 5 years, the offense has only averaged just over 20 points, outside of 2016 which appears to have been an abherration.  They are returning 9 offensive starters but lost their all-star QB and struggled mightily to run the ball last year with only 109 yards per game, so the offense may be in trouble.  They are getting a lot of credit for their defense which was in the top of the Group of Five last year, only allowing 17.5 ppg and returning 8 starters but in Coach Bohl’s time in Laramie, it was the first time holding opponents below 32 ppg so I’m going to need to see some consistency to believe this wasn’t a one-off type of year.  My formula is predicting a 38-26 NMSU win.  Once again, my formula is still in its early stages, particularly when determining the points but im going NMSU +4 and over 45 points.  What are your thoughts?  Leave a comment tell me what you think!