NCAA Week 6 Recap

What a wacky week!!  Three more undefeateds have fallen.  Oklahoma, LSU, and Kentucky all went on the road and all lost to lower ranked opponents.  This is what makes college ball so much fun.  Each week is an audition for these young men to be picked up by the League!  Bring your “A” game and manage your emotions if you want to win.

Oklahoma traveled to Dallas for a neutral site rivalry game and this time their high powered offense couldn’t make up for a sub-par defense.  Oklahoma used to be known for a top-tier defense and used that defense for their 21st Century resurgence.  It looks like Oklahoma may want to get back to their roots if they hope to compete for championships in the near future.

Oklahoma wasn’t the only team to struggle.  LSU went to the swamp and fell into the same traps that they have experienced the past few seasons, Great defense and weak offense.  Kentucky dropped a winnable game on the road to Texas A&M after getting too cute and failing to use their workhorse Benny Snell Jr. enough.  The heisman darkhorse did not even get a carry in Overtime?!  Alabama rolled again, as did Georgia and Clemson.

I want to reiterate that the formula is still in a Beta-test mode.  But it has seemed to settle in around 40% accuracy against the spread and 50% when predicting the total.  I also want to point out that, for transparency, I have put every game on here for all to see while most experts will not do that, choosing to only share picks that they like.  There is a human element to picking games as some things cannot be understood by a simple computer formula.

The Elldee Sports team of the week has to be Texas.  They have gone from an also-ran after losing to Maryland to the pinnacle of beating Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry, 48-45.  Congratulations Longhorns.  The power is shifting in regards to the playoffs.  If the playoffs started today, the top 4 teams would be Alabama, Notre Dame, Georgia, and Clemson.  Ohio State hasn’t impressed much recently and we are a world of “what have you done for me lately”!

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LSU @ Florida

Ben Hill Griffin Stadium is going to be rocking on Saturday afternoon when the LSU Tigers visit the Florida Gators for a huge matchup.  This game is not only a massive tilt in the SEC but also on the National scene.  The Tigers bring an undefeated team and a lofty #5 ranking into the Swamp while the Gators are back in the AP Top 25 for the first time since a loss to Kentucky the second game of the season.

LSU Head Coach Ed Orgeron was a trendy pick for the hot seat during all the preseason talks.  How did he respond?  He took the LSU Tigers and soundly beat media darling Miami Hurricanes at a neutral site and then followed that up with a win over top-ten Auburn.  This team is bubbling with confidence and hopes to cruise to a 6-0 start for the first time since 2015.

The Florida Gators are led by new head man Dan Mullen, former Offensive Coordinator that led them to national glory twice in the Urban Meyer era.  He brings a new optimism for a long dormant offense that has all of the talent needed but has sorely lacked the development required to make a competitive team.  Many wrote off the Gators after dropping an early game to Kentucky but the Wildcats are still undefeated and that loss is looking better each week.  The Gators defense has really cranked up the heat and lead the FBS in takeaways.

Surprisingly, LSU and its #5 ranking is only a 2-pt favorite over the florida Gators.  The Swamp doesn’t strike fear into the hearts of the competition like it used to but is still a formidable place to play.  The formula is calling for a 20-13 win for Florida, dashing the hopes for an undefeated season in Baton Rouge!

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NFL Week 4 Recap

Kansas City and Los Angeles Rams!  Those are the final two undefeated teams.  The ’72 Dolphins are already getting the champagne ready here after Week 4.  There was good and bad this week but nothing as bad as last week’s Minnesota performance.

The LA Rams have continued their sweltering run by scoring 38 ponts against one of the league’s top defenses owned by the Minnesota Vikings.  The KC Chiefs also remained unbeaten by going to the Mile High City and executing a 10-pt 4th quarter comeback, winning 27-23.  How good is the NFC North?  That division is loaded with GB and Aaron Rodgers, Minnesota and their stingy defense, a Detroit team that beat NE handily last week, and the Chicago Bears that completely destroyed TB.

Speaking of Tampa Bay, I think it’s safe to say that the honeymoon is over with Ryan Fitzpatrick.  After a second sub-par performance, the Buccaneer leadership is beginning to realize why Fitz is on his 7th team in 14 seasons!  At least Tampa fans have two wonderful weeks to remember.  Unlike the Cleveland Browns and Atlanta Falcons that are living in a nightmare.  Cleveland has to feel like the NFL is punishing them for some unknown reason after a few questionable calls ruined another chance at a win this week.  This team is the closest team to 4-0 out of any team with a loss in the league.  The Falcons can’t seem to catch a break as, for the second week in a row, they have lost in the final minute.  Maybe next week, my friends.

This week was the first week using current year stats with my formula.  I have to be honest, I’m not unhappy.  This is the first week that I was above 50% on both spread picks and over/under picks.  I hope this is the start of something good!

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NCAA Week 5 Recap

I can’t believe Week 5 has already ended.  The inter-conference matchups and cupcake games are getting smaller in the rearview mirror.  It is time for the trudge of the conference season.  Who will seperate themselves from the pack?

There were two matches between top 10 schools this week, Ohio St-Penn St and Stanford-ND.  In Happy Valley, the hometown Nittany Lions couldn’t hang on to a 12-point 4th quarter lead and fell to the OSU Buckeyes 27-26.  The home team in South Bend didnt have that problem as Notre Dame blew open the game during the second half to win 38-17.

The Clemson Tigers came in as the #3 team this week but have had a bit of contraversy with the QB, as their long-time starter was replaced with a true freshman.  This almost cost them as the freshman was injured and the senior already decided to transfer.  This would have spelled disaster if not for the defense and running game stepping up to inspire a 27-23 win vs Syracuse.

Another week and another horrible set of predictions versus the spread as the formula went 7-18.  Equally as common, the formula was solid when predicting the over/under, finishing with a 56% accuracy rating.  The Elldee Sports Team of the Week moniker belongs to the Oregon Ducks as they went into Berkeley, California and demolished a ranked Cal team 42-24!  If the playoffs started next week, it should be Alabama, Ohio State, LSU, and Notre Dame.  Clemson looks shaky and has QB problems.  Oklahoma looks awesome against weak defenses but have yet to prove themselves against a living, breathing defense with a pulse.  Georgia struggled at home vs a train wreck Tennessee team.  Anything can happen next week though!


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Miami @ New England

Are you ready for some FOOTBALL!!  THE MIAMI Dolphins (3-0) travel North to Foxboro to tangle with the New England Patriots (1-2) and Tom Brady.  The Patriots come in as 7-point favorites in it’s first AFC North game in a division they have owned for the better part of the century.  NE has finished first in the division for 16 of the past 18 years and every year since 2008.  Miami hopes to change that this year!

Miami comes in unbeaten and with a divisional road win at the New York Jets.  They havent looked dominant but are one of three unbeaten teams left in the NFL.  Hoping to get the monkey off of their back, the Dolpins will continue to push with a balanced offense and respectable defense.  Will this team match the ’72 team and become only the second team in NFL history to finish the year undefeated?

New England is reeling headed into this important matchup.  Their only win is over a weak Houston Texan team.  Losing in Week 2 is understandable against the inconsistent, yet talented, Jacksonville Jaguars but dropping Week 3 to the Detroit Lions by three scores is a red flag and unlike a Bill Belichik coached team.  Tom Brady thrives in this system and the coaching staff in NE has a knack for creating chemistry between teammates as the season progresses.

This is the year that somebody finally replaces the Patriots as the top dog in the AFC North.  The Dolphins are the team to do it as they are coinfident and flying high.  There is no reason that the spread should favor a team with a losing record over a team without a loss, particularly by a full touchdown!  This line is based soley on historical perception.  The Dolphins should stay well within the spread and have a solid chance to win outright!

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Ohio State @ Penn State

This is the game that everyone has been waiting for in the BIG 10!  For the past few years ths game has been the battle of the top two teams in the conference and this year is no different.  The Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0) bring their undefeated record and title aspirations to Happy Valley to battle the undefeated Penn State Nittany Lions (4-0).  This has the potential to be the game of the year for the entire country.

Ohio State comes into this one with a first year starter at quarterback, who has played like anything but that, in Dwayne Haskins.  He is currently one of the Heisman Trophy front-runners according to most experts.  This offense has been rolling and has the best win between the two teams by beating TCU in Dallas in what was billed as a neutral site game.  That game was anything but neutral and the Buckeyes proved they can thrive under pressure.

Penn State has been on the cusp of greatness recently but cannot quite seem to get over the hump to become an elite team.  The Nittany Lions have a great offense of their own and have shown a penchant for scoring in bunches!  After the wake-up call vs giant-killer Appalachian State in the opening game PSU has been absolutely dominating, especially in the second half of games with Trace McSorley leading them.

This match is most likely going to come down to defensive stops and composure.  Ohio State has proven they can score big against athletic defenses and Penn State still must prove they can compete vs top flight defenses.  Additionally, if PSU gets behind early and waits for a second half burst, as they have previously this year, they will not have the firepower against the OSU defense to make the run.  The Buckeyes will roll in this one, winning easily and flying over the total!

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Change in Stats, Change in Scores

I have finally started using this year’s stats in both formats, NCAAF and NFL.  I am aware that there are quite a few games that are predicted to be shutouts and no, I do not think they will all be shutouts!  As I have said previously, this is the test run and I may need many adjustments for accuracy.

I would also like to point out that I have been putting EVERY game prediction on the site where most prediction sites do not do that, especially games that are too close to call.  This has caused my numbers to be skewed and look worse than they would be if I only shared or counted games I feel the formula is correct with.  My goal is not necessarily to predict actual score exactly everytime, as long as I can pick the winner vs the spread and whether the score will go over or under the vegas projections.  This is purely for entertainment I want to be as transparent as possible in the predictions without giving out the formula.

Please bear with me, thank you for following and reading my posts, and I hope to get feedback and opinions in the future.  Feel free to spread the site to friends because word of mouth is the only advertisement I currently have.  Im hoping to gather more followers and have this become a meeting place for football entertainment.  Thank you again for taking the time to read and follow!

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NFL Week 3 Recap

Week 3 brought excitement usually reserved for playoff prep.  Like usual, there was good, bad, and ugly.  The season is young and teams are still creating an identity so they can trudge forward to the Superbowl.

Contenders or Pretenders?  Cleveland finally broke through with their first win in almost 2 years over the NY Jets.  I had a feeling this would happen soon as the Browns have looked much improved.  New Orleans went on the road to make a intra-divisional statement by beating the Falcons in Overtime.  The KC Chiefs have kept rolling and look like the team to beat this year in the AFC with a potential matchup vs the LA Rams in this year’s Superbowl!

Two teams that have carried a lot of hype and looked good in the first 2 weeks fell off the top this week.  I cannot explain what happened to the Minnesota Vikings after they were dismantled by the hapless Bills at home this week.  Additionally, the Jacksonville Jaguars are not sure if they want to be good or not!  They only scored 6 points at home against the Tennesse Titans.  Mind you, the Jags were playing without superstar RB Leonard Fournette but the Titans started the game with QB Blaine Gabbert filling in for the injured Marcus Mariota.

The formula has hovered around 50% vs the spread all season.  On the other hand, the record compiled when predicting the over/under prediction has risen every week and recorded a dominating 75% accuracy this week!  I have finally updated the stats with this seasons info so we will see how it goes from here.

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NCAAF Week 4 Recap

I suppose that college ball wouldn’t be college ball without madness happening somewhere in the country.  This week there were plenty of odd occurences from Eugene to Knoxville and Norman to Norfolk!  Lets take a look at some of these games.

The Oregon Ducks had this game well in hand as most of the East Coast was headed to bed.  By the time Sunday morning rolled around the Ducks had blown a 24-7 lead and lost in Overtime 38-31 to #7 Stanford.  The Tennessee Volunteers took part in turnoverfest 2018 as they committed six turnovers vs the hated Florida Gators and were blown out 47-21.  The Oklahoma Sooners powered through against the Army Black Knights, 28-21 in Overtime, in a match that Oklahoma should have won by 50.  Alabama once again rolled, this time against Texas A&M, while Georgia finally got tested and pulled out a decent win at Missouri.

The Elldee Sports Team of the Week has to go to the Old Dominion Monarchs!  They had a 28-point 4th quarter outburst and dominated the Virginia Tech Hokies 49-35.  This was undoubtedly the biggest win in program history and first victory over a power five opponent.  If the playoffs started next week the four teams would be Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, and LSU.  I dropped Oklahoma after their close call with Army and still have Georgia on the cusp.

I used the formula to predict 24 games this week which is by far the most I have done this year for a single week.  I also began using this year’s stats for the first time.  I still need to work on the formula as I went 10-14 vs the spread and 11-13 while predicting the over/under.  It was only one week though and I have to give time to allow for the numbers to stabilize.  These numbers bring my overall percentages to 45% vs the spread and 49% on the o/u.  Next week is my week!!

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Notre Dame @ Wake Forest

There’s an interesting game brewing in Winston-Salem, NC this week.  The Wake Forest Demon Deacons (1-1) host the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3-0) in what should be an entertaining game for college football fans.  Can the Deacs shock the world and prove that the Leprechaun is protecting fool’s gold in his pot or will Notre Dame continue to roll?

Notre Dame looked impressive in the opening week by taking control of the game vs Michigan early, enroute to a victory.  Since then they have looked less and less sharp each week, winning by 8 against Ball State and 5 vs Vanderbilt.  That is not exactly murderer’s row of teams they have beaten.  Notre Dame HAS beaten them all though and that’s what matters most.

Wake Forest cannot say the same as they are coming off of a loss to a top-25 team at home last week in a salty Boston College team.  Wake squeaked by Tulane in week one and lost to BC in their only other game.  Although they lost, the Deacons held BC RB Dillon to minimal yards and hopes to do the same against Notre Dame this week which will negate ND’s top offensive threat.

There is only one problem…Notre Dame is for real.  First of all, the Irish rushing attack will not be slowed by Wake Forest.  Secondly, ND returned 9 starters on defense so the Deacons will not be able to keep up with Notre Dame on the scoreboard.  The spread has dropped all the way down to ND -6.5 which is too low for a matchup between these two teams.  Notre Dame will win this game 35-26 and the score will climb past the number for the over.  Either way, this game should be decided in the fourth and definitely be enjoyable to watch.

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