Auburn vs Washington

Man oh man do we have a good one here in the Chick-fil-a Kickoff Classic.  The Washington Huskies are traveling almost as far as possible for their season opening game.  Auburn in the other hand is playing in a defacto home game.  Top teams in two of the most powerful conferences clash for bragging rights and a leg up in the playoff race.

Washington comes in with 17 returning starters from a team that was clicking on all cylinders on offense and defense for the past two years.  Jake Browning is back for his senior year and hopes to lead the Huskies back to the playoffs for the 2nd time in 3 years!  These boys are hot and Coach Peterson is going to have his team ready to play!

The Auburn Tigers aren’t too shabby themselves and have a chip on their should with something to prove!  This is the third straight game in Atlanta for the Tigers but have come up short the previous two times. Auburn lost to Georgia in a virtual playoff game during the SEC Championship 28-7 and followed that up with a 27-34 loss to “Co-National Champion” UCF Golden Knights in the Peach Bowl.  They should have the crowd support and return 13 starters themselves.

In a game that will come down to sheer determination, the winner will be the team that shows the most heart as both teams are impressive.  Somebody has to win though and the numbers are calling for Auburn to squeak by 27-23 and covering the 2.5-pt spread.  That score will also squeak over the 48.5-pt over/under.  Auburn and over will be the final outcome of this toss-up of a game.

 

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Northwestern @ Purdue

So here it is!  Officially, the first game that I will take full credit for with my algorithm.  This is a Thursday night game, two days before the traditional first Saturday of the season and these two Big 10 squads have wasted no time getting into the meat of their schedule.  These names might not carry the same weight as the blue bloods of college football but this is a conference game which means this matchup means more than 95% of the games on this weekend’s schedule!

Northwestern is coming off of a 10-3 campaign last season and return 7 starters on both sides of the ball.  That is a solid core returning for a team that averaged 29 points per game on offense and held opponents to 20 ppg on defense.  The only regular season games they lost last year were at Wisconsin and at home to Penn State, neither of those are anything to be embarassed about.

Purdue is led by Head Coach Jeff Brohm who was known for high scoring offenses when he was at Western Kentucky.  Brohm was brought in last year to turn around a bottom feeding Purdue team and create a respectable squad.  In his first year he took a team that won a total of 9 games in the previous four years and went 7-6.  Even though they more than doubled their wins from the previoius year, it was anchored by a strong defense that held opponents to 20.5 ppg instead of Brohm’s usual high flying offense, which only averaged 25 ppg.  This years offense should be much improved as they return 9 starters and they are going to need it as the defense should have a large drop-off with only 4 returning starters.

The current spread is calling for Purdue as a 1.5-pt favorite and an over/under of 53.  After compiling the numbers, my formula is looking at a 7-pt Northwestern win by a score of 46-39.  The formula still needs tweaking on the total but the spread should be pretty spot on.  Expect NW to win in a high scoring affair to start the year off right!!

 

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Wyoming @New Mexico State

The second game of week zero in 2018 NCAA Football is a matchup in Las Cruces, New Mexico between the Wyoming Cowboys and the New Mexico State Aggies.  These two teams have only met once before with Wyoming dominating 47-0 but it was so long ago that it has no bearing on tonights game.  The current line is Wyoming -4 after opening at -5.5.  My algorithim agrees with the bettors that have pushed this line down by calling for a 12-pt NMSU win! New Mexico St is coming off of its first bowl in 60 years after a 7-6 season capped with beating Utah State in OT of the Arizona Bowl!  This team is trending up in all statistical categories, scoring higher in all 6 years of Head Coach Doug Martin’s years, culminating in last year’s 29.3 points per game.  Not only have they improved offensively but defensively have improved to allowing 29.7 ppg, their first time holding opponents under 30 for Coach Martin and also returns 9 starters.  On the other side of the coin, the Cowboys finished 8-5 and played in their second straight bowl game.  Head Coach Craig Bohl has done a good job with Wyoming but even with first round pick Josh Allen the offense only scored 23.5 ppg.  In his 5 years, the offense has only averaged just over 20 points, outside of 2016 which appears to have been an abherration.  They are returning 9 offensive starters but lost their all-star QB and struggled mightily to run the ball last year with only 109 yards per game, so the offense may be in trouble.  They are getting a lot of credit for their defense which was in the top of the Group of Five last year, only allowing 17.5 ppg and returning 8 starters but in Coach Bohl’s time in Laramie, it was the first time holding opponents below 32 ppg so I’m going to need to see some consistency to believe this wasn’t a one-off type of year.  My formula is predicting a 38-26 NMSU win.  Once again, my formula is still in its early stages, particularly when determining the points but im going NMSU +4 and over 45 points.  What are your thoughts?  Leave a comment tell me what you think!

Hawaii @ Colorado State

Well, it’s finally here!!  Week 0!!  College football is back and i couldnt be happier.  I know, I know, it’s only Hawaii at Colorado State but beggars cant be choosers.  So right now the current spread is Colorado St -15 after opening at -14 so obviously the money is going for CSU which is exactly what i agree with.  I went ahead and plugged in the numbers and I am predicting a 17-point Colorado St win in a high scoring affair.  Now, I am still tweaking the formula, especially for the point total regarding the Group of Five teams but I am going to go on the record and say that the travel from Hawaii will take it’s toll late, allowing the Rams to cover.  The emotional burst from opening day, coupled with the fact that Rams head coach Mike Bobo has recently been released from the hospital, will have Colorado St really getting after it.  Additionally, Hawaii is switching to a more wide-open spread, June Jones style from years past, which will make sure this is a high scoring game and fly over the 58-pt over/under.  Am I wrong?  Leave a comment and tell me what you think!!

NCAAF Week 1 Thoughts

Have you looked at the predictions for week 1 of the college football season?  We are only 2 weeks away from the opening games!!  The formula doesnt have a lot of upsets week one but some noticable picks include LSU over Miami and VT over FSU down in Doak Campbell!!

If you didnt notice i did my best to stay away from teams that are not power 5 teams but if you want to know the prediction for any particular games not shown then just ask and ill plug the numbers in and compute the outcome.  Obviously some of the scores seem very high but this is a ongoing process to tweak the formula.  Are there any thoughts on the picks?

 

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Predictions & Debate

I have spent the last few months of my life working on a mathematical formula to try and predict the final scores of NFL and NCAA Football games.  Each week I am going to post my predictions under the respective menu tabs.  What I would like each of you to do is look at the predictions and respond with a comment or an entire new post explaining why you agree or disagree with particular games.

I am going to update the weekly tally of wins, losses, and win percentage so we can all track.  This is year one so bear with me as I learn, win or lose, and tweak my formula to ultimately become the greatest football prognosticator of ALL TIME!!!  or just have fun with something I love.

Thanks for being a part of my experiment.  I hope this entertains you as much as it has me the past year.  Any and all comments and interactions are appreciated.  Thank you.

 

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