NY Jets @ Cleveland Browns

Wow, just wow!  I never imagined I would actually be interested in a game between the New York Jets and the Cleveland Browns.  At least not unless the Jets had Tim Tebow at QB and the Browns had Lebron at TE!

The NYJ (1-1) come into the Thursday night NFL game following a loss to the sneaky good Miami Dolphins.  Their rookie quarterback Sam Darnold has been a mixed bag in his first two outings.  New York looked impressive in week one when they didnt ask too much from Darnold but during week 2 they were forced to rely heavily on him and were not near as crisp on offense.  Darnold did throw for 334 yards last week but also threw two interceptions and it appears the Jets would be better served using him as a game manager at this point.

The Cleveland Browns (0-1-1) have been everything we have come to expect from them.  They have managed to snatch a loss and a tie away from the jaws of victory over the first 2 weeks of the season.  Admittedly, they do look like a much better team than the traveling circus they have been in years past and appear to be on the upswing.  Tyrod Taylor has been effective throwing to Jarvis Landry and rookie Antonio Callaway.  The running game has looked good, as well, with a resurgent veteran in Carlos Hyde.

So, who is going to emerge victorious in this clash of the titans?  Both teams need this game to keep pace in their respective divisions so expect a tight one.  The running attack of the NY Jets with Bilal Powell and former Cleveland RB Isaiah Crowell will be able to take the pressure off of Darnold enabling them to score just enough to steal a late victory.  The Browns will be foiled for a third straight week by special teams but this week it will be the special teams of the opponent that ruins their party.  Expect a final score of NYJ 15 Cle 13 and with the current spread of Cleveland -3, the smart pick is to take the Jets and the points with the under.

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NFL Week 2 Recap

Here we are again.  Week 2 is complete after an exciting Monday Night Football match.  Who is up, who is down, and what in the world are the Buccaneers going to do with their quarterback situation?

My oh my do the Kansas City Chiefs look impressive offensively.  I understand that they haven’t exactly played the ’02 Bucs but they have put up 38 and 42, respectively, vs the Chargers and Steelers.  Another team that looked impressive are the Jacksonville Jaguars who beat the New England Patriots, to the delight of 31 other NFL teams and their fans.  In fact all three teams from the State of Florida are, surprisingly, 2-0.

On the flip side, should the Buffalo Bills just cancel their season now or let this ugliness play out.  Not only have they been destroyed during the first two weeks of the season but their starting CB decided it was appropriate to retire at halftime of this week’s game.  Honestly, I’m cool with it.  If your heart is not in it anymore then do what’s best for you.  How about the Browns?  They actually look like a respectable team but it simply appears that are snake-bitten.  That is the only explanation I have for the ridiculousness in how they have managed to not win.

So the formula did not do quite as well this week against the spread but did a complete 180° vs the over/under.  I am still using last year’s stats until after week 4 so there are teams that are not accurate but it will all be sorted as the year goes on.  Either way, my overall record vs the spread is a respectable 54.8% and against the o/u has climbed from 25% to 43.8%.  Not bad for using outdated stats.  I will keep pressing until I reach 60% minimum.

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NCAA Week 3 Recap

Week 3 is in the books and we are starting to see seperation from the elite teams.  We had a few statement wins, a few teams succumb to the pressure, and a few head scratchers.  In a 12 game season, we have completed 25%.  Slow down!!

Ohio State started slow.  They took some lumps early, noticeably giving up a 93-yard rush for a TD which was the longest rush for TD by TCU ever and the longest allowed by OSU ever.  Even still, they went to Texas and beat a top-25 team.  Ole Miss came in averaging over 60 ppg but Alabama rolled to Oxford and smashed them 62-7, talk about a statement!!  #6 Wisconsin dropped a game to a renewed BYU team 24-21 and another top-10 team goes down.  This also highlights an alarming trend with 7 BigTen teams falling to unranked teams!

The formula took a beating vs the spread this week going 4-8 but one game was a push and 2 more were losses due to teams leading and running out the clock inside the 5.  Im off but not by far.  Against the over/under, the formula went 8-5 this week.  This is the second week out of three that the o/u has finished at 61.5%.  I can live with that.  Now that 3 weeks are completed, there is finally enough data to start using this years stats.  I am hoping this gives me the bump that I need to increase my percentage rates.

This week’s Elldee Sports Team of the Week goes to LSU, after traveling to the #7 Auburn Tigers and mounting a 4th quarter comeback to win 22-21!  My playoff predictions will begin this week, as well.  In rank order, Alabama, who has looked dominant all year.  Ohio State, who had the best win this week after beating TCU.  Oklahoma, who has loooked solid and doesnt have much competition outside of TCU and West Virginia.  Finally, I would give LSU the last spot, if the playoffs started today.  LSU has now beaten top-10 Miami and Auburn, both away from home in 3 weeks of football.  Notre Dame, Clemson, and Georgia are all on the outside looking in.  I need to see more from their competition before anointing them like everyone else.  It is a long season and anything can happen, though.

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NFL Week 1 Recap

Week one is in the books for the NFL.  There were seven new head coaches and seven teams with losses to show for it.  Rookies that looked like old hats and veterans who can’t seem to shake the injury bug.  How did your team do?

Some teams impressed, such as Baltimore that absolutely rocked the hapless Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs who jumped all over the Chargers on the road to take the early divisional lead.  Some teams disappointed, such as the Arizona Cardinals who absolutely laid an egg for the home crowd vs the Washington Redskins or the Cowboys who looked like they may have made a mistake dumping Dez without a viable replacement.

Sam Darnold, the youngest quarterback to ever start an NFL game, led the Jets of New York in a dismantling of the Detroit Lions for a national audience.  Denzel Ward, another rookie player showed why he was a first round draft pick at cornerback for the Cleveland Browns with two picks of Ben Roethlisberger to help the Cleveland Browns salvage a tie vs the Pittsburgh Steelers at home.

The Formula did well against vs the spread, posting a 10-6 record but was absolutely abysmal on the totals, going 4-12 for a paltry 25%.  There clearly were issues that need to be corrected and I believe I was able to do just that.  I have tweaked the formula heading into week 2 and expect increased win percentages in both categories this weekend.  Let me know how I am doing.

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MNF #1

Tonight is a double-header.  The New York Jets roll to Detroit to tackle the Lions and the LA Rams fight for in-state supremacy with the Oakland Raiders.  Who will come out victorious and who will go home losers?

The Jets will be playing the Lions with the youngest starting QB in the history of the NFL.  If I have learned anything, it is that you dont want to roll the dice with a rookie at QB in game one of an NFL season.  Especially if the opposing team has a new head coach who was previously a defensive coordinator in your division and is VERY familiar with your scheme, in Matt Patricia.

The Rams are a young team that really made a leap last year.  They want to continue to build on their success against the new look Raiders.  The new look, same as the old look, Raiders have re-acquired their former coach John Gruden and he looks to get them back to Super Bowl form.

The formula says detroit will win but the spread has risen to 7 and detroit is still detroit.  Expect the Jets to stay within a touchdown.  The Rams are just too good for an Oakland team that will be adjusting to a new coach and should roll in this game 40-29.

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NCAAF Week 2 Recap

Well, I dont have anything to say.  After a solid week 1 performance I went 6-7 & 4-9 in my predictions during week 2.  You can’t win them all but that is less than 50% vs the spread and over/under.  I could’ve flipped a coin and done better.  Gotta shake it off and get ready for next week.  One week at a time!!

Week 2 left us with more questions than answers.  Is Clemson for real or is Texas A&M that good?  FSU almost lost to Samford which tells me that VT may not be as good as I originally thought.  USC?  Don’t bring a true freshman QB into Stanford’s house and expect a win!  Alabama and Georgia keep rolling but that is one of the few things we were able to confirm, they are good.

Team of the week in my mind has to be Kentucky who snapped a 31 game losing streak to the University of Florida.  The last win they got over UF was in 1985!  All I can say is this is not a good way for new Head Coach Dan Mullen to endear himself to Florida fans.  Congratulations, University of Kentucky, on getting that monkey off of your back but more importantly for being the Elldee Sports team of the week!!


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Georgia @ South Carolina

Week 2 of the college football playoff race has arrived.  One of the biggest games of the day involves the Bulldogs of Georgia and the Gamecocks of South Carolina.  Georgia is a legitimate playoff contender and USC East is a solid program looking to take the next step.

The Georgia Bulldogs (1-0) come into this year looking to reload in the backfield after losing running backs Sony Michel and Nick Chubb to the NFL.  Lucky for UGA they are absolutely stacked at the position and have sufficient talent surrounding the RB to pick up for any deficiencies as the new running backs come into their own.  More concerning is the fact that only two defensive starters return from last year’s national champion runner-up squad.

Do the South Carolina Gamecocks (1-0) have the offensive firepower to take advantage of the green Georgia defense?  Gamecock fans hope so, as all-world athlete Deebo Samuel returns after an injury that ended last season for him before it really started.  Jake Bentley is an above average QB sho has made an emphasis on cutting down turnovers which should help.  Head Coach Will Muschamp is quietly building a respectable program in Columbia and wants to ride a stout defense and solid offense to victory in this crucial matchup.

The winner of this game will take the driver’s seat in the SEC East as well as having the inside track of reaching Atlanta for the SEC championship game and ultimately the playoffs.  The current spread is Georgia -10 with an o/u of 56 but the formula says it will not be nearly that close.  The prediction calls for a 46-5 Bulldog rout!  Now, I don’t agree with the final score but I do think Georgia wins this convincingly and keeps the score under the total.  We will find out this afternoon!

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Atlanta @ Philadelphia

Cue the fireworks!  The NFL is here!  We have anxiously waited 7 months for this and the time is now.  Atlanta travels to play Philadelphia in the City of Brotherly Love!

While the average fan has patiently waited for the season to begin, Atlanta Falcon fans have been foaming at the mouth ever since the NFL released the schedules.  The Falcons get another crack at the Eagles after having their season ended in this very stadium last January.  Matty Ice melted last season as the Falcons only scored 10 in the playoffs, so expect this team to come out firing.  Atlanta is going to try and show Philly why Ryan to Jones is such a feared combination.

Philadelphia is surely still on cloud nine following the franchises first ever super bowl victory.  They accomplished something Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb never could, win the big game!  Last year’s main catalyst, Carson Wentz is injured to start the season but able-bodied Nick Foles should handle the stage just fine as he admirably filled in as the QB throughout the playoffs and superbowl last season.

After punching the numbers into the formula, it says that Atlanta will get it’s revenge and it will be sweet, beating the Eagles 34-21 to open the season.  The public agrees as the opening line of -4 in favor of Philadelphia has dwindled down to -1.  Only time will tell and that time is coming soon.  “You got one year, coach”.  Now let’s play some football!!!

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NCAAF Week 1 Recap

Holy cow, what a start to the year!!  We had a little bit of everything from overrated teams from the state of Florida to turnover towels!  How did your team fare?

In the marquee games of the weekend, the Elldee Sports formula rocked an impressive 5-1 record vs the spread and a 3-3 record regarding over/under totals.  I guess I know where I still need some adjustments.  Overall, We went 8-5 in both categories for a respectable 61.5% win rate.  I know, I know, it’s only been one week but there is room for optimism.

Team of the week has to go to Virginia Tech for going on the road, on a Holiday, as the only game of the night for a national audience, against a top 20 squad, with a new coach who has been hyped for his offensive prowess, and winning 24-3 vs FSU!  Congratulations on the impressive win VT!!

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