NCAAF Week 7 GotW: Texas Tech @ Baylor (-10)

Big 12 Logo     Raise your hand if you thought the Baylor Bears would be undefeated heading into Week 7?  I have a feeling that not many of you raised your hands.  That doesn’t mean they are a Big 12 Power and will steamroll the competition by simply showing up, especially against a Texas Tech team that showed grit in their last game.  The Texas Tech Red Raiders shocked Oklahoma State, beating them at their own game by outscoring the Cowboys.  Can they shock the College Football world again?

Texas Tech (3-2) come into this week off the back of an emotional victory over Oklahoma State.  The offense finally showed signs of life by scoring 45 points in the win, reverting back to early season form.  Junior quarterback Jett Duffey came alive in his first start of the year, throwing for over 400 yards and 4 touchdowns.  He hopes to carry that momentum into this week against the Baylor Bears.

The Baylor defense is not the Cowboys of Oklahoma State and I wouldn’t count on the Red Raiders hanging half a hundred on this stingy squad.  In fact, the Bears have a top 25 defense and have propped up this team, making it worthy of their #22 AP ranking this week.  The offense is methodical and has assisted in ensuring this team has stayed undefeated.  With the strong defense, the offense hasn’t been asked to score much and they haven’t needed to.  Will this be enough against the top teams in the Big 12?  Probably not but it should be this week vs. Texas Tech.

This game should be interesting and will show the world whether the Baylor Bears are for real or the undefeated season is all smoke and mirrors due to the schedule.  The Elldee Sports team has run the formula and they are calling for a Baylor cover and an under in this Game of the Week.  Until next time, good luck!

Baylor 35 – Texas Tech 7

Baylor -10 and Under 58

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NCAAF Week 6 GotW: Purdue @ Penn State (-27.5)

Big Ten Logo v1     As we enter Week 6 of the College Football Season, the elite teams have begun to separate themselves from the rest of the pack.  One team that was overlooked in it’s own conference has started to rise, like cream, to the top.  The Penn State Nittany Lions enter this week’s Elldee Sports Game of the Week facing the Purdue Boilermakers.  Can the Nittany Lions continue their torrid run at home in Happy Valley?

The Purdue Boilermakers had high hopes coming into this season, especially behind the playmaking ability of Rondale Moore.  Quarterback Elijah Sindelar returned for his Senior season and is in his second year in the system.  The defense returned 9 starters, albeit from a weak unit.  All in all, there was much to look forward to heading into the season.  Well, here we are heading to Week 6 and things have not gone to plan as the Boilermakers have a 1-3 record including a loss to the Nevada Wolfpack, a Group of Five school.  To make matters worse, Moore and Sindelar are both injured and things look bleak.  Young coach Jeff Brohm is going to need to pull some magic out of his hat to prevent a tailspin and salvage some type of momentum going into the offseason.

Flip the coin over and you have the Penn State Nittany Lions.  When this season began, most experts pegged Penn State as a 3rd place team in the Big Ten East.  As the year has progressed, Penn State has played with the heart of…well, a Lion!  The Nittany Lions are 4-0 with 3 blowouts and also a tough rivalry game win over Pitt to show they can handle pressure.  With a #14 ranking nationally in both total offense and total defense, the meat of the schedule begins.  Head Coach James Franklin must prove that he can win the big matchups and get this team over the hump.

With the way that Penn State has been playing, coupled with the injuries to the Boilermakers starting QB and star WR Moore, this is going to be a tall task for Purdue to steal a win on the road.  In fact, the Elldee Sports formula is predicting a complete demolition at the hands of the Nittany Lions.  The best bet is to take the Lions and the over in this one.  Until next time, good luck.

Penn State 70 – Purdue 7

Penn State (-27.5) and Over 55.5

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NCAAF Week 5 GotW: Virginia @ Notre Dame (-11)

ND Logo     Welcome to Week 5 of College Football.  There does not appear to be many high profile games this week but there are some hidden gems.  Additionally, the weeks without many top 25 matchups usually carry the most excitement to include potential upsets!  The biggest game on the docket for this weekend is the Virginia Cavaliers traveling to South Bend to face the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.  The Golden Domers second big game in as many weeks.

Taken on face value, the Virginia Cavaliers do not appear to have played the toughest schedule.  Dig a little deeper though.  The Week 1 opening win against the Pitt Panthers, once considered a pushover, looks much better after Pitt defeated the UCF Golden Knights last weekend.  Old Dominion has two close losses to the state’s flagship schools and may be better than they currently look.  The offense has been fairly stale but paired with the 30th ranked defense, Virginia has been able to average 36 points per game.  This is a team that leans heavily on their defense and discipline, a direct reflection of their Head Coach Bronco Mendenhall.  Expect this team to be prepared to play hard.

Notre Dame is an upper echelon team and they proved that on the field last week.  The Irish gave the Georgia Bulldogs all they could handle, dropping an emotional game on the road.  There is no doubt that this group is one of the best in the country and the statistics prove that.  The offense is about 60 yards per game and 3 points per game better than Virginia while the Defense is slightly worse but not as far behind as you may think.  The worry for the Fighting Irish is what the mindset will be following a draining road game.  South Bend is home sweet home but will that be enough to carry a weary team past a hungry Cavalier team?  Tune in this weekend to find out.

The crew at Elldee Sports think that home-field advantage, sheer talent level, and a great game-planner in Brian Kelly will be enough to propel Notre Dame to another victory.  The game will not be a cake walk though, as the Elldee Sports Formula is predicting a low-scoring slugfest with Notre Dame hanging on and winning late.  Until next time, good luck!

Notre Dame 9 – Virginia 8

Virginia (+11) and Under 50.5

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Week 4 NCAAF GotW: Oklahoma State @ Texas (-5.5)

Big 12 Logo     Time has arrived for College Football to go wholesale into conference competition.  I know, I know, there have already been conference matchups but starting this week, a majority of teams will play conference foes.  That is no different in the Big XII and one of the best games of the week for all of the NCAA is the Oklahoma State Cowboys at the Texas Longhorns.  Let’s jump right in to this matchup.

The Oklahoma State Cowboys travel down from Stillwater, OK and bring one of the most potent offenses in the country.  In fact, they have the NCAA’s leading rusher in Chuba Hubbard, who also leads the country in rushing TDs!  The Pokes are not only a rushing team though.  They also throw for over 260 yards per game.  These numbers are good enough to account for 50 more yards per game than the Longhorns.  Even the defense is playing better than Texas, at least statistically, holding opponents to 30 yards less per game.  Add all of that in to fact that Texas has not beaten Oklahoma St. in 5 years and have not won at home in Austin in 10 and you can make a compelling argument for the Cowboys to steal another on the road.

Texas is having none of it though!  You can bring up a 4-game losing streak  to the Longhorn players and they will all say the same thing…this isn’t the same Texas.  They would be right, too.  This year’s Texas squad has higher expectations than any this decade and those expectations are realistic this time.  Sam Ehlinger leads the Longhorns and has proven to be adept at reading defenses that are much better than Oklahoma State’s defense.  Texas will be playing with a chip on their shoulder and have been tested once already this season.  Emotions will be high and the Longhorns are gonna be pumped up for this one!

So how are these teams going to fare against each other this week?  The Elldee Sports Formula is calling for a high scoring affair, with the Oklahoma State Cowboys ultimately coming out on top.  Texas has shown that they are vulnerable in the secondary after giving up just under 500 yards through the air vs LSU.  Oklahoma State is known more for passing than LSU.  The problem is that the Longhorns cannot load up on DBs with Chuba Hubbard waiting to gain 8 yards a pop!  Don’t worry about Texas, though.  They have the offensive fire-power to keep up in this matchup.  Until next time, good luck.

Oklahoma State 52 – Texas 47

Oklahoma State (+5.5) and Over 73

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Week 3 NCAAF GotW: Stanford @ UCF (-7)

PAC-12 Logo     The Elldee Sports Game of the Week for College Football is the Stanford Cardinal at the Central Florida Golden Knights.  Stanford must travel from the friendly confines of Stanford Stadium, 2,800 Miles, to sunny Orlando, Florida.  A prominent Power Five school going on the road to a Group of Five school is not usual but this is not a usual Group of Five school.

The Cardinal (1-1) are coming off of a humiliating 45-20 loss to conference rival USC.  To make matters worse, they were leading early 17-3 before being outscored 42-3 for the rest of the game.  The reason for the drubbing may have been due to the fact that K.J. Costello, the starting quarterback, was out with a head injury.  The good news is that he has been cleared and will be back this week, the bad news is that even when he played in Week 1 against Northwestern, the offense struggled.  UCF is not known for defense so this may be just what the doctor ordered for the floundering unit.

The UCF Golden Knights (2-0) have not had the problems that Stanford has on the offensive side of the ball.  They are averaging 55.0 points per game but have not faced anywhere close to the competition as the Cardinal, playing against FCS foe Florida A&M and Florida Atlantic.  Although the competition was weak, they handled the opponents exactly as they should have, winning by 62 and 34 respectively.  The biggest question for the Golden Knights is who their starting quarterback will be, as they have rotated between the experienced transfer in Brandon Wimbush and the explosive freshman, Dillon Gabriel.

So who wins out?  Tradition or Johnny-Come-Lately?  Power Rushing and defense or Flashiness and Speed?  Stanford or Central Florida?  Playing in Spectrum Stadium, aka “The Bounce House”, gives UCF a decided advantage.  The Golden Knights have won 17 consecutive matches at home and look to extend that this weekend to 18.  The offense is proven and this team is confident.  That should be enough to propel them to victory.  The Elldee Sports Formula is calling for a 37-8 Golden Knights victory.  That final score lends itself to taking UCF -7 and under the total of 58.  Until next time, good luck!

UCF 38 – Stanford 7

UCF -7 & Under 58

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Georgia State @ Tennessee: On Top of Rocky Top

SEC Logo     “Rocky Top, you’ll always be home sweet home to me.  Good ole Rocky Top, Rocky Top Tennessee”.  If you are a member of the Georgia State Panthers, I would suggest you go ahead and get familiar with those words because you are going to hear it… A LOT!  The Georgia State Panthers are traveling to Knoxville, Tennessee to play at the revered Neyland Stadium.  The familiar confines and checkerboard endzones of Neyland don’t strike the same fear into opposing teams as it once did but coach Jeremy Pruitt has Volunteer fans seeing orange.

Georgia State was one of the worst teams in the Sun Belt Conference last year.  This year the Panthers are returning their Senior quarterback who led the team in passing and rushing from a year ago.  The offense expects to improve with experience in key positions and continuity at head coach as Shawn Elliot enters his 3rd year in Atlanta.  The defense brings back seven starters which is the good news.  The bad news is that they were one of the worst defenses in all of FBS football.  Even though the experience level has increased and on field play may improve, this unit will likely still struggle.

Everything that was said about Georgia State bodes well for the Tennessee Volunteers.  They have got to be licking their chops and chomping at the bit to get after this Georgia State team.  Coach Pruitt is a defensive mind and will have this Vol defense really amped up for this tune-up game.  The secondary is led by a talented trio of sophomores but anchored with a Senior in Nigel Warrior.  The Volunteers need to bump up the turnover margin numbers, finishing last year with -1, and going against the Panthers 92nd ranked passing offense, expect the DBs to snag a few free ones.  On offense, it is time for Junior quarterback Jarrett Guarantano to shine.  He was the #1 dual threat quarterback out of high school 3 years ago and just hasn’t shown the consistency to allow Tennessee to compete with the big boys.  With a strong group of pass catchers and a deep stable of quality running backs, the offense should finally get rolling.

Coach Jeremy Pruitt has worked hard and finally instilled a work-pail, blue-collar mentality into this Volunteer team.  That, coupled with solid recruiting, should make this team much more formidable.  They will show off their new found swagger at the expense of Georgia State this week.  The book makers have the spread a hair too high and the total a bit too much for this early season matchup, though.  Expect Tennessee to easily win but fail to cover the 25.5-point spread.  The game will also drift below 57.5.  The Elldee Sports Formula is calling for a 27-6 Volunteer victory.  Until next time, good luck.

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