PAC 12 Championship: Utah @ Oregon

PAC-12 Logo     What a great College Football season that this has been.  There have been so many twists and turns and we at Elldee Sports do not think the twists are finished just yet.  The PAC-12 Championship game, in Santa Clara’s Levi’s Stadium, is a de-facto playoff play-in game for the Utah Utes so they will be playing with everything to gain.  With that being said, The Oregon Ducks would love nothing more than to crash the Utes party and deny them a playoff berth!

Utah’s Kyle Whittingham is, quite possibly, the most underrated coach in all of college football.  He has a team built from cast-offs, players who are by no means average but not considered the cream of the crop by the “big schools”.  In fact, the Utes have made it to #5 and only 7 points from perfection with a team that has consistently received a lower recruiting ranking than this week’s opponent.  That is because these players have not let arbitrary rankings define them.  Leaders Tyler Huntley and Zack Moss, both from Hallandale High School in Florida, have bought into this program and the coach.  They have had amazing seasons and the offense has been supported by the #3 defense in the country.  Expect these guys to give their all and hope to reach heights never before seen by this program.

What can be said about the Oregon Ducks?  They came into the year with sky high expectations, great recruiting classes, beautiful facilities, and a future 1st-round NFL pick at QB to lead them.  What else could you want?  Well, turns out that they could’ve used two more wins.  They opened the season in dominating fashion, handling a highly-touted Auburn team at a neutral site until crumbling in the 4th quarter and dropping the opening game.  Yes, they should have beaten Auburn, the same team that just beat Alabama.  The Ducks handled the adversity well and reeled off nine consecutive wins before letting complacency take hold once again.  They dropped a game at Arizona State after positioning themselves in the driver’s seat for the playoffs.  For Oregon players and fans, this has got to be extremely frustrating.  It is clear they have one of the best teams in the country but cannot seem to keep their heads right.  All is not lost, though, as QB Justin Herbert has another chance to impress the NFL scouts and lead his team to the Rose Bowl during his Senior year.  The defense is top 25 caliber and the offense is averaging the exact same amount of yards as the Utes so this game should be an all out brawl.

So who wins this matchup?  The Utah Utes with a shot at the playoffs or the Oregon Ducks with nothing to lose?  After running the numbers through the Elldee Sports Formula, it appears that the bright lights and pressure of the situation will be too much for Utah.  Oregon will win this convincingly, even though they come in as the underdog!

Oregon 43 – Utah 26

Oregon +6.5 and Over 46

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Weekend Full of Meaningful Matchups

Elldee Logo Original     The seasons are winding down on the gridiron and heating up on the courts.  This weekend is ready to provide some excitement on the turf and the hardwood, though, as we have Top-10 matchups in NCAA Football, heavyweights swinging in the NFL, early-season tourneys in NCAA Basketball, and teams jockeying for position in the NBA!

Starting things off on Friday night are College Basketball tournament action and big-time NBA matchups.  These are highlighted by the #1 Duke Blue Devils vs. the Georgetown Hoyas in the 2K Empire Classic in the world-famous Madison Square Garden.  Duke is favored by 13 and should easily cover that number in this early season test.  On the pro side of the sport, the Los Angeles Lakers are heading to Oklahoma City to put their 12-2 record on the line against the Thunder.  LA has the better record but OKC has home court advantage and 4.5-points on their side.  Look for OKC to stay within the spread and possibly even steal this one outright.

Saturday is the day where College Football is King!  The season is almost over and every game is important.  Any false moves now and there is no time for recovery in the playoff discussion.  There are no more impactful games this weekend in any sport than when the Penn State Nittany Lions travel to the Horseshoe to face THE Ohio State.  Although, not a de-facto playoff game, it may as well be as the loser will not make the 4-team tournament.  In a matchup of Top-10 teams, one would expect a tight game but that’s not the way Vegas sees it.  OSU is an 18-pt favorite in this one.  James Franklin is too good of a coach with too good of a team to get beaten that soundly.  Penn State and the points is what the Elldee Sports Formula is calling for.

Finally, the NFL is providing a game or two worth watching on Sunday to finish out the weekend.  There are only a few games with national appeal this weekend for the professional football league but boy are they whoppers!  In the early games, the cream of the crop has to be the Seattle Seahawks heading East to face the Philadelphia Eagles.  The numbers in the formula say the ‘Hawks by 8 but my mind says be wary of a team traveling from the West Coast for an early game.  In the afternoon slate, the Dallas Cowboys head to Foxboro to face the New England Patriots in what should be the game of the week.  The showcase should be the offense of Dallas vs the defense of NE in this mega-matchup.  The cold weather and travel is probably too much to overcome for the Cowboys with a prediction of a close 1-pt loss.

There are plenty of great options to choose from this weekend.  Sit down, grab a bag of popcorn and stay entertained!  Until next time, good luck!

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Prediction Recaps

NFL LogoNBA LogoNCAA LogoNCAA Logo 2Here at Elldee Sports, we are back up and running.  This includes all four sports that we predict, Professional Football and Basketball plus College Football and now College Basketball Top 25 games.

The NCAA Men’s Basketball world simply has too many teams and games to predict every single matchup.  I do not have enough time currently to run each individual game although we can run any matchup upon request.  This will be the first week that College Basketball will be posted and the rest of the season will be covered from this point on.

NBA matchups have been started to mixed results.  The formula had to have a minor tweak so that every game was not predicting the under.  After the first week, the NBA picks are not doing so hot.  Vs the Money Line, the picks are hitting 46.7% of the time.  Vs the Spread, the formula has been right only 45.5% of the time.  Vs the Total, we are finally in the positive, hitting on 52.8% of the games.  On a bright note, overall Spread and Total numbers have hit just on the plus side at 51.1% of the time.  Mind you, this has been a very small sample size and we fully expect these numbers to climb rapidly.

NCAA Football has been all over the place so far this season.  As the sample size grows, the formula becomes more accurate but due to a recent move, we have not been able to run numbers for the past 3 weeks.  Based off of the numbers that have been run so far, Elldee Sports has predicted a 77.3% Money Line win percentage.  Vs the Spread we have hit on 52% even.  Totals have gone 48% for the formula.  This has equaled a total of 49.8% overall with a strong chance to make a push here at the end of the season to end profitable in the college ranks.

Finally, the NFL has been our bread and butter.  Professional sports are much easier due to the fact that all teams are similar in talent and a small percentage of players move from team to team each year.  Keeping that in mind, the Money Line win percentage has been 65.2%.  The Money Line numbers are not eye-popping but the Spread covers have been a whopping 59.1% which has been absolutely stellar!  The Over/Under wins are rocking a 52.4%.  Additionally, the Overall win numbers have amounted to a solid 55.4%, good enough to be respectable.

Continue to follow Elldee Sports as all of the major sports are now in full swing.  Until next time, good luck!

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NCAAF Week 7 GotW: Texas Tech @ Baylor (-10)

Big 12 Logo     Raise your hand if you thought the Baylor Bears would be undefeated heading into Week 7?  I have a feeling that not many of you raised your hands.  That doesn’t mean they are a Big 12 Power and will steamroll the competition by simply showing up, especially against a Texas Tech team that showed grit in their last game.  The Texas Tech Red Raiders shocked Oklahoma State, beating them at their own game by outscoring the Cowboys.  Can they shock the College Football world again?

Texas Tech (3-2) come into this week off the back of an emotional victory over Oklahoma State.  The offense finally showed signs of life by scoring 45 points in the win, reverting back to early season form.  Junior quarterback Jett Duffey came alive in his first start of the year, throwing for over 400 yards and 4 touchdowns.  He hopes to carry that momentum into this week against the Baylor Bears.

The Baylor defense is not the Cowboys of Oklahoma State and I wouldn’t count on the Red Raiders hanging half a hundred on this stingy squad.  In fact, the Bears have a top 25 defense and have propped up this team, making it worthy of their #22 AP ranking this week.  The offense is methodical and has assisted in ensuring this team has stayed undefeated.  With the strong defense, the offense hasn’t been asked to score much and they haven’t needed to.  Will this be enough against the top teams in the Big 12?  Probably not but it should be this week vs. Texas Tech.

This game should be interesting and will show the world whether the Baylor Bears are for real or the undefeated season is all smoke and mirrors due to the schedule.  The Elldee Sports team has run the formula and they are calling for a Baylor cover and an under in this Game of the Week.  Until next time, good luck!

Baylor 35 – Texas Tech 7

Baylor -10 and Under 58

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NCAAF Week 6 GotW: Purdue @ Penn State (-27.5)

Big Ten Logo v1     As we enter Week 6 of the College Football Season, the elite teams have begun to separate themselves from the rest of the pack.  One team that was overlooked in it’s own conference has started to rise, like cream, to the top.  The Penn State Nittany Lions enter this week’s Elldee Sports Game of the Week facing the Purdue Boilermakers.  Can the Nittany Lions continue their torrid run at home in Happy Valley?

The Purdue Boilermakers had high hopes coming into this season, especially behind the playmaking ability of Rondale Moore.  Quarterback Elijah Sindelar returned for his Senior season and is in his second year in the system.  The defense returned 9 starters, albeit from a weak unit.  All in all, there was much to look forward to heading into the season.  Well, here we are heading to Week 6 and things have not gone to plan as the Boilermakers have a 1-3 record including a loss to the Nevada Wolfpack, a Group of Five school.  To make matters worse, Moore and Sindelar are both injured and things look bleak.  Young coach Jeff Brohm is going to need to pull some magic out of his hat to prevent a tailspin and salvage some type of momentum going into the offseason.

Flip the coin over and you have the Penn State Nittany Lions.  When this season began, most experts pegged Penn State as a 3rd place team in the Big Ten East.  As the year has progressed, Penn State has played with the heart of…well, a Lion!  The Nittany Lions are 4-0 with 3 blowouts and also a tough rivalry game win over Pitt to show they can handle pressure.  With a #14 ranking nationally in both total offense and total defense, the meat of the schedule begins.  Head Coach James Franklin must prove that he can win the big matchups and get this team over the hump.

With the way that Penn State has been playing, coupled with the injuries to the Boilermakers starting QB and star WR Moore, this is going to be a tall task for Purdue to steal a win on the road.  In fact, the Elldee Sports formula is predicting a complete demolition at the hands of the Nittany Lions.  The best bet is to take the Lions and the over in this one.  Until next time, good luck.

Penn State 70 – Purdue 7

Penn State (-27.5) and Over 55.5

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NCAAF Week 5 GotW: Virginia @ Notre Dame (-11)

ND Logo     Welcome to Week 5 of College Football.  There does not appear to be many high profile games this week but there are some hidden gems.  Additionally, the weeks without many top 25 matchups usually carry the most excitement to include potential upsets!  The biggest game on the docket for this weekend is the Virginia Cavaliers traveling to South Bend to face the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.  The Golden Domers second big game in as many weeks.

Taken on face value, the Virginia Cavaliers do not appear to have played the toughest schedule.  Dig a little deeper though.  The Week 1 opening win against the Pitt Panthers, once considered a pushover, looks much better after Pitt defeated the UCF Golden Knights last weekend.  Old Dominion has two close losses to the state’s flagship schools and may be better than they currently look.  The offense has been fairly stale but paired with the 30th ranked defense, Virginia has been able to average 36 points per game.  This is a team that leans heavily on their defense and discipline, a direct reflection of their Head Coach Bronco Mendenhall.  Expect this team to be prepared to play hard.

Notre Dame is an upper echelon team and they proved that on the field last week.  The Irish gave the Georgia Bulldogs all they could handle, dropping an emotional game on the road.  There is no doubt that this group is one of the best in the country and the statistics prove that.  The offense is about 60 yards per game and 3 points per game better than Virginia while the Defense is slightly worse but not as far behind as you may think.  The worry for the Fighting Irish is what the mindset will be following a draining road game.  South Bend is home sweet home but will that be enough to carry a weary team past a hungry Cavalier team?  Tune in this weekend to find out.

The crew at Elldee Sports think that home-field advantage, sheer talent level, and a great game-planner in Brian Kelly will be enough to propel Notre Dame to another victory.  The game will not be a cake walk though, as the Elldee Sports Formula is predicting a low-scoring slugfest with Notre Dame hanging on and winning late.  Until next time, good luck!

Notre Dame 9 – Virginia 8

Virginia (+11) and Under 50.5

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Week 4 NCAAF GotW: Oklahoma State @ Texas (-5.5)

Big 12 Logo     Time has arrived for College Football to go wholesale into conference competition.  I know, I know, there have already been conference matchups but starting this week, a majority of teams will play conference foes.  That is no different in the Big XII and one of the best games of the week for all of the NCAA is the Oklahoma State Cowboys at the Texas Longhorns.  Let’s jump right in to this matchup.

The Oklahoma State Cowboys travel down from Stillwater, OK and bring one of the most potent offenses in the country.  In fact, they have the NCAA’s leading rusher in Chuba Hubbard, who also leads the country in rushing TDs!  The Pokes are not only a rushing team though.  They also throw for over 260 yards per game.  These numbers are good enough to account for 50 more yards per game than the Longhorns.  Even the defense is playing better than Texas, at least statistically, holding opponents to 30 yards less per game.  Add all of that in to fact that Texas has not beaten Oklahoma St. in 5 years and have not won at home in Austin in 10 and you can make a compelling argument for the Cowboys to steal another on the road.

Texas is having none of it though!  You can bring up a 4-game losing streak  to the Longhorn players and they will all say the same thing…this isn’t the same Texas.  They would be right, too.  This year’s Texas squad has higher expectations than any this decade and those expectations are realistic this time.  Sam Ehlinger leads the Longhorns and has proven to be adept at reading defenses that are much better than Oklahoma State’s defense.  Texas will be playing with a chip on their shoulder and have been tested once already this season.  Emotions will be high and the Longhorns are gonna be pumped up for this one!

So how are these teams going to fare against each other this week?  The Elldee Sports Formula is calling for a high scoring affair, with the Oklahoma State Cowboys ultimately coming out on top.  Texas has shown that they are vulnerable in the secondary after giving up just under 500 yards through the air vs LSU.  Oklahoma State is known more for passing than LSU.  The problem is that the Longhorns cannot load up on DBs with Chuba Hubbard waiting to gain 8 yards a pop!  Don’t worry about Texas, though.  They have the offensive fire-power to keep up in this matchup.  Until next time, good luck.

Oklahoma State 52 – Texas 47

Oklahoma State (+5.5) and Over 73

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