Long Break Almost Over

Elldee Sports has been on an extended hiatus as we have focused on fine-tuning the Elldee Sports Prediction Formula.  I finally feel comfortable and confidant enough to press ahead with plans.  Prior to next football season I will have a fully functioning membership site which will cover all American Football and Basketball matchups, collegiate and professional.  Instead of exact scores, I will be posting percentages of the chance of a team to cover, as well as the chances of an over or under.  This is all for entertainment and validation purposes, of course.  I am hoping to provide a forum for discussion and opinions, as well as a mathematical formula to help validate your personal thoughts on winners of each game.  Additionally, I will be covering all games now, not only games between Power 5 teams.  I am excited to move forward and I hope you will join me.

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NFL Week 1 Recap

Week one is in the books for the NFL.  There were seven new head coaches and seven teams with losses to show for it.  Rookies that looked like old hats and veterans who can’t seem to shake the injury bug.  How did your team do?

Some teams impressed, such as Baltimore that absolutely rocked the hapless Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs who jumped all over the Chargers on the road to take the early divisional lead.  Some teams disappointed, such as the Arizona Cardinals who absolutely laid an egg for the home crowd vs the Washington Redskins or the Cowboys who looked like they may have made a mistake dumping Dez without a viable replacement.

Sam Darnold, the youngest quarterback to ever start an NFL game, led the Jets of New York in a dismantling of the Detroit Lions for a national audience.  Denzel Ward, another rookie player showed why he was a first round draft pick at cornerback for the Cleveland Browns with two picks of Ben Roethlisberger to help the Cleveland Browns salvage a tie vs the Pittsburgh Steelers at home.

The Formula did well against vs the spread, posting a 10-6 record but was absolutely abysmal on the totals, going 4-12 for a paltry 25%.  There clearly were issues that need to be corrected and I believe I was able to do just that.  I have tweaked the formula heading into week 2 and expect increased win percentages in both categories this weekend.  Let me know how I am doing.

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MNF #1

Tonight is a double-header.  The New York Jets roll to Detroit to tackle the Lions and the LA Rams fight for in-state supremacy with the Oakland Raiders.  Who will come out victorious and who will go home losers?

The Jets will be playing the Lions with the youngest starting QB in the history of the NFL.  If I have learned anything, it is that you dont want to roll the dice with a rookie at QB in game one of an NFL season.  Especially if the opposing team has a new head coach who was previously a defensive coordinator in your division and is VERY familiar with your scheme, in Matt Patricia.

The Rams are a young team that really made a leap last year.  They want to continue to build on their success against the new look Raiders.  The new look, same as the old look, Raiders have re-acquired their former coach John Gruden and he looks to get them back to Super Bowl form.

The formula says detroit will win but the spread has risen to 7 and detroit is still detroit.  Expect the Jets to stay within a touchdown.  The Rams are just too good for an Oakland team that will be adjusting to a new coach and should roll in this game 40-29.

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NCAAF Week 2 Recap

Well, I dont have anything to say.  After a solid week 1 performance I went 6-7 & 4-9 in my predictions during week 2.  You can’t win them all but that is less than 50% vs the spread and over/under.  I could’ve flipped a coin and done better.  Gotta shake it off and get ready for next week.  One week at a time!!

Week 2 left us with more questions than answers.  Is Clemson for real or is Texas A&M that good?  FSU almost lost to Samford which tells me that VT may not be as good as I originally thought.  USC?  Don’t bring a true freshman QB into Stanford’s house and expect a win!  Alabama and Georgia keep rolling but that is one of the few things we were able to confirm, they are good.

Team of the week in my mind has to be Kentucky who snapped a 31 game losing streak to the University of Florida.  The last win they got over UF was in 1985!  All I can say is this is not a good way for new Head Coach Dan Mullen to endear himself to Florida fans.  Congratulations, University of Kentucky, on getting that monkey off of your back but more importantly for being the Elldee Sports team of the week!!

 

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Georgia @ South Carolina

Week 2 of the college football playoff race has arrived.  One of the biggest games of the day involves the Bulldogs of Georgia and the Gamecocks of South Carolina.  Georgia is a legitimate playoff contender and USC East is a solid program looking to take the next step.

The Georgia Bulldogs (1-0) come into this year looking to reload in the backfield after losing running backs Sony Michel and Nick Chubb to the NFL.  Lucky for UGA they are absolutely stacked at the position and have sufficient talent surrounding the RB to pick up for any deficiencies as the new running backs come into their own.  More concerning is the fact that only two defensive starters return from last year’s national champion runner-up squad.

Do the South Carolina Gamecocks (1-0) have the offensive firepower to take advantage of the green Georgia defense?  Gamecock fans hope so, as all-world athlete Deebo Samuel returns after an injury that ended last season for him before it really started.  Jake Bentley is an above average QB sho has made an emphasis on cutting down turnovers which should help.  Head Coach Will Muschamp is quietly building a respectable program in Columbia and wants to ride a stout defense and solid offense to victory in this crucial matchup.

The winner of this game will take the driver’s seat in the SEC East as well as having the inside track of reaching Atlanta for the SEC championship game and ultimately the playoffs.  The current spread is Georgia -10 with an o/u of 56 but the formula says it will not be nearly that close.  The prediction calls for a 46-5 Bulldog rout!  Now, I don’t agree with the final score but I do think Georgia wins this convincingly and keeps the score under the total.  We will find out this afternoon!

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Wyoming @New Mexico State

The second game of week zero in 2018 NCAA Football is a matchup in Las Cruces, New Mexico between the Wyoming Cowboys and the New Mexico State Aggies.  These two teams have only met once before with Wyoming dominating 47-0 but it was so long ago that it has no bearing on tonights game.  The current line is Wyoming -4 after opening at -5.5.  My algorithim agrees with the bettors that have pushed this line down by calling for a 12-pt NMSU win! New Mexico St is coming off of its first bowl in 60 years after a 7-6 season capped with beating Utah State in OT of the Arizona Bowl!  This team is trending up in all statistical categories, scoring higher in all 6 years of Head Coach Doug Martin’s years, culminating in last year’s 29.3 points per game.  Not only have they improved offensively but defensively have improved to allowing 29.7 ppg, their first time holding opponents under 30 for Coach Martin and also returns 9 starters.  On the other side of the coin, the Cowboys finished 8-5 and played in their second straight bowl game.  Head Coach Craig Bohl has done a good job with Wyoming but even with first round pick Josh Allen the offense only scored 23.5 ppg.  In his 5 years, the offense has only averaged just over 20 points, outside of 2016 which appears to have been an abherration.  They are returning 9 offensive starters but lost their all-star QB and struggled mightily to run the ball last year with only 109 yards per game, so the offense may be in trouble.  They are getting a lot of credit for their defense which was in the top of the Group of Five last year, only allowing 17.5 ppg and returning 8 starters but in Coach Bohl’s time in Laramie, it was the first time holding opponents below 32 ppg so I’m going to need to see some consistency to believe this wasn’t a one-off type of year.  My formula is predicting a 38-26 NMSU win.  Once again, my formula is still in its early stages, particularly when determining the points but im going NMSU +4 and over 45 points.  What are your thoughts?  Leave a comment tell me what you think!

Hawaii @ Colorado State

Well, it’s finally here!!  Week 0!!  College football is back and i couldnt be happier.  I know, I know, it’s only Hawaii at Colorado State but beggars cant be choosers.  So right now the current spread is Colorado St -15 after opening at -14 so obviously the money is going for CSU which is exactly what i agree with.  I went ahead and plugged in the numbers and I am predicting a 17-point Colorado St win in a high scoring affair.  Now, I am still tweaking the formula, especially for the point total regarding the Group of Five teams but I am going to go on the record and say that the travel from Hawaii will take it’s toll late, allowing the Rams to cover.  The emotional burst from opening day, coupled with the fact that Rams head coach Mike Bobo has recently been released from the hospital, will have Colorado St really getting after it.  Additionally, Hawaii is switching to a more wide-open spread, June Jones style from years past, which will make sure this is a high scoring game and fly over the 58-pt over/under.  Am I wrong?  Leave a comment and tell me what you think!!