NCAA Football: Who Can Match Their Vegas Win Total?

Vegas has released their numbers for win total over/unders.  By running the numbers through the Elldee Sports Formula, I was able to determine some of the largest discrepancies.  This is always a fun exercise in the doldrums of summer between football and basketball seasons.  Below are a list of top looks:

Syracuse:  O/U 5 — Total wins 10

Virginia Tech:  O/U 8.5 — Total wins 6

Miami:  O/U 8.5 — Total wins 11

Texas:  O/U 9.5 — Total wins 9

Washington State:  O/U 8.5 — Total wins 12

South Carolina:  O/U 6 — Total wins 3

Of course, these are just a few teams of interest.  I am very shocked at the number of 5 for Syracuse when I predict 10.  Additionally, the numbers show a very impressive year for Washington State with a potential run to the playoffs!  Are there any thoughts on these numbers?  How about other teams?  If there are any particular teams you would like me to run the numbers for, please let me know in the comments and I will run their schedules.  Thanks for the read.

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Long Break Almost Over

Elldee Sports has been on an extended hiatus as we have focused on fine-tuning the Elldee Sports Prediction Formula.  I finally feel comfortable and confidant enough to press ahead with plans.  Prior to next football season I will have a fully functioning membership site which will cover all American Football and Basketball matchups, collegiate and professional.  Instead of exact scores, I will be posting percentages of the chance of a team to cover, as well as the chances of an over or under.  This is all for entertainment and validation purposes, of course.  I am hoping to provide a forum for discussion and opinions, as well as a mathematical formula to help validate your personal thoughts on winners of each game.  Additionally, I will be covering all games now, not only games between Power 5 teams.  I am excited to move forward and I hope you will join me.

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Heisman Trophy ’18?

It’s time for the NCAA’s biggest award, the Heisman Trophy.  I wanted to author a small write-up in hopes to get a few opinions about the course that this trophy has taken.  Who should win this award and why.

This year the finalists are all underclassmen.  The line-up consists of three quarterbacks, Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray, Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa, and Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins.  While I do believe that each of these players are incredible athletes in their own right, I don’t know if they embody what the Heisman used to stand for.

I may be wrong but with my opinion but I think the Heisman should not go to the best player on the best team but instead should go to the best player in college football.  I know that a player’s character also plays into this but how else should this award winner be decided?  I like to think the only fair way to truly judge a players abilities is to decide which team would suffer the most without them on it.

Take Tua from Alabama and Jalen Hurts steps in and they likely still go undefeated.  Remove Haskins from Ohio State and the Buckeyes more than likely still end up in a New Year’s Six Bowl Game.  Drop Kyler Murray from Oklahoma and that team loses at least three games with that sieve of a defense.

With that reasoning, I would be fine with Murray winning the coveted prize but I am not sure the other two should even be in New York as finalists.  I would lean towards Will Grier of West Virginia, Ian Book of Notre Dame, or Benny Snell of Kentucky as my additional finalists.

I find it hard to get behind Tua Tagovailoa when he is surrounded by elite athletes.  Alabama has only played one game this year against a team with similar athletes and that was Georgia, who shut down Tua and the high powered offense until Hurts came in.  It also seems that Ohio State rotates quarterbacks in every year that put up video game numbers.  That leads me to believe that Urban Meyer’s system has as much to do with his success as his abilities.

Do any of you feel the same way or am I way off base here?  Please comment and let me know your thoughts.

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NCAAF Championship Week Recap

It’s all over but the bowl games now.  There are winners, losers, and tons of intrigue when it comes to the playoff selection.  If only there were live coverage of what went on in the decision room of the CFB Playoff Committee.

All teams in contention for a playoff spot won except for Georgia.  You really can’t fault the Bulldogs for dropping a game to the #1 ranked Alabama Crimson Tide by a touchdown.  The result came after a hard fought game by both teams which ended with the game ultimately being decided by a questionable fake punt call and a hero off of the bench.  Oklahoma avenged their only loss of the year, convincingly, to win the Big 12 Conference Championship.  This outcome bears extreme similarities to last year’s Georgia win in the SEC Championship that enabled them to make a title run in the playoffs.

So the playoff matchups are set with Alabama playing Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl and Clemson matched up with Notre Dame in the Cotton Bowl.  Despite the valiant effort by Ohio State, Georgia, and UCF, they will all be relegated to a New Year’s Six Bowl.  The final Elldee Sports Team of the Week is the UCF Golden Knights.  They get the nod for two reasons, number one is that they showed they are more than Mackenzie Milton after putting up 56 on Memphis and secondly, this is the only reward they will ever be recognized for after winning 25 straight that includes wins over, Auburn and Pitt.  Keep fighting, Knights!  Stay tuned for the Bowl predictions coming soon.

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NCAAF Championship Week Predictions

Here we are in the final week of the regular season for college football.  All of the Power 5 Conferences are playing their championship games.  Will there be one more week of curveballs to shake up the playoff picture?

The Elldee Sports formula is predicting all favorites to win the championship games.  This is the first week, with a minimal number of games, that I do not see any Best Bets to lean on.  In each game I can see the favorite rolling but in each game there is hope for the underdog to steal a win, particularly with the points.

The way that Alabama has been rolling, there is no doubt that they have the firepower to cover the large two touchdown line.  On the other hand, the Georgia Bulldogs are probably the one team that is built to compete with the Crimson Tide.  That coupled with the emotional boost of playing in Atlanta and the painful memory of last years National Championship game might give them just the boost that the Bulldogs need to challenge for the SEC crown.

Ohio State has looked amazing for half of the year, including last week’s explosion over a top Michigan defense.  The other half of the year they have struggled to win and looked lost.  Northwestern has won 15 of their last 16 Big 10 games and are a gritty, blue collar team.  Will they be able to grind it out and shock the world?

As far as the numbers indicate, the favorites should roll but we all know that anything can happen.  Best of luck and you will hear from Elldee Sports again after the playoffs brackets have been decided.

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NCAAF Week 13 Recap

It finally appears as if the playoff picture is becoming clear.  Who is in amd who is out?  We are still not sure the exact participants as each time we almost have a handle on it, the college football world throws us a curveball.

Man, oh man, I did not envision the Ohio State Buckeyes dismantling the Michigan Wolverines like they did.  I am slightly surprised they even won considering the recent turn of events in the Big 10 but to score 62 points on one of the top defenses in the nation was unbelievable.  Alabama had no trouble dispatching it’s arch rivals, the Auburn Tigers, by 31.  Clemson rolled to a 21 point win but uncharacteristically gave up a ton of points to a never-say-die South Carolina Gamecock team.  Notre Dame struggled early but eventually righted the ship and defeated the USC Trojans by 7.

So that covers three of the likely playoff contenders but who will take the spot left vacant by the Michigan Wolverines?  There are really only three options, the Oklahoma Sooners, the Ohio State Buckeyes, or the UCF Golden Knights.  Oklahoma has a historically good offense but no defense.  Ohio State has a strong offense, average at best defense, but boasts wins over Michigan and Penn State.  UCF, the underdog favorite who has gone undefeated for almost 2 years straight now but lost their superstar quarterback to a gruesome leg injury that will sideline him for the rest of his college career.  Who should go?  Only the playoff committee can decide that.

I knew it was too good to be true.  Basing my best bets off of the formula and the good old fashioned eye test was bound to falter at some point.  Elldee Sports was rocking a 75% win percentage, winning at a clip of 3 out of every 4!  This week was quite different as the formula accounts only for numbers and cannot adjust for rivalry week emotions, that was simply an error in my own judgement.  By going 0-4 this week, my win percentage tumbled to 64.3% which is still very respectable.  The Elldee Sports Team of the Week is the Texas A&M Aggies, as they outlasted the LSU Tigers 74-72 in the longest and highest scoring game in FBS history.  If the playoffs started today, the teams should be Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma.  Until next week, good luck.

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NCAAF Week 13 Prediction

Rivalry week is here and with it comes a few great options for the Elldee Sports Best Bets.  Is your team one of the squads with a great chance to dominate?  Lets jump into our four guaranteed winners.

Michigan (-4) @ Ohio State

Minnesota @ Wisconsin (-10)

Notre Dame (-10.5) @ USC

Oklahoma State (-5) @ TCU

Michigan is rolling, led by their stellar defense.  Shea Patterson leads a serviceable offense to complement the monster defense.  Ohio State has the talent and the coaching but something doesn’t seem right in Columbus.  All of the talent in the world cannot win a championship if the chemistry is missing.

Minnesota is a tough, hard nosed team…at home.  On the road they are softer than charmin.  Wisconsin comes in as a major disappointment this year, having lost three games already.  All three losses have come on the road against top-tier Big 10 teams.  This one is in the confines of Camp Randall Stadium, take the home team in a blowout.

Notre Dame brings their undefeated record into Los Angeles for a big time rivalry game.  USC is scrapping for bowl eligibility.  The way that Notre Dame is rolling with their all-around quality should have no issues owning USC in the Coliseum, sending the Trojans into the offseason without a bowl.

Oklahoma State has really come alive.  The Cowboys had so much promise headed into the season but lost some luster somewhere in the middle of the season after a few losses.  They seem to have found their mojo while TCU has continued to fall off all season.  Oklahoma State should be able to cover the 5-pt spread.

There are your winners for this week.  With a 75% winning rate in the Best Bets, you can expect these four games to increase that percentage.  Enjoy the games and your Holiday, good luck.

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